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News
By: Michael Broadway and John Broadway via Rural Insights
MARQUETTE — The U.P. saw a dramatic uptick in net migration during the pandemic, according to data from the Internal Revenue Service. Iron County was one of the top seven U.P. counties for increased net migration, with newcomers outearning those who left the region for another state by roughly 25 percent annually.
Migration occurs in two forms: in-migration and outmigration, and the difference between the two are net migration. For the past several decades, the U.P. population has declined due a falling birth rate, a high death rate due to an aging population, and a net loss from outmigration, as retirees and others have moved away from the region. In 2015-16, for example, IRS data indicate that 5,115 households moved to the U.P. while 5,906 moved away for a net loss of 791 households, with just three counties experiencing small positive gains. (See table 1, pg.)
A more detailed breakdown for the seven largest U.P. counties shows a net loss for the same time frame in favor of the South and West, with a combined outmigration of 1,115 households and only 869 in-migrants. In Marquette County, for example, 196 households left for Western states, while just 108 moved in the opposite direction. South states include Alabama, Arkansas, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Oklahoma, Maryland, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, Texas, Tennessee, Virgina, West Virginia. West states include Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, Washington and Wyoming.
In 2020-21, there was a major change in U.P. migration patterns, with more households moving to the region (7,149) than moving away (6,072). (See table 2, pg.) The counties with the largest net household gains were Chippewa (203), Alger (127), Marquette (118), Iron (111), Baraga (110) and Mackinac (100).
For six of the seven largest U.P. counties, there were net gains from Western states. While there was a net positive gain of migrants from the South, it was less than for the West (16 versus 100, respectively). This suggests that moving to the South still retains a positive draw; Mackinac County, for example, experienced a net loss of 28 households to Southern states. Despite the net gains from migration, it does not necessarily translate into population growth since the number of births and deaths must also be counted.
The IRS data also enables the calculation of average household income for in and out-migrants. In 2020-21, with just two exceptions (Baraga and Chippewa), the average household income for people moving to the U.P. was significantly higher than people leaving the region. (See table 3, pg).
In Iron County, in-migrants earned over $11,000 more annually than out-migrants. In Houghton and Schoolcraft counties, there was a difference of over $19,000 between in-and out migrants. Keweenaw County is perhaps the most interesting: Its 20 newcomer households had an average income of over $106,000, which is well above the county’s median figure of $54,010.
The influx of higher income households provides a welcome boost to local economies. However, these newcomers are more likely to be able to afford purchasing or renting a home than many long-term residents with lower incomes. This, in turn, contributes to the well-documented housing affordability issue in the region.
According to the data from the Greater Iron Mountain Area MLS, a real estate listing service, the number of units sold in Iron County jumped over 30 percent between 2018 and 2020. The average sale price for Iron County units increased 20 percent during the same period. That rate jumps to 25 percent when comparing 2018 numbers to the first two months of 2021.
In-migration gains are not unique to the Upper Peninsula. Other rural counties, particularly in so-called amenity areas (with lakes and forests), experienced an influx of population along with a surge in home prices between 2020-21. Newcomers to Flathead County, Montana, (close to Glacier National Park) for example, helped push the population up by nearly 4 percent between 2020-21, while average home values increased by over $200,000 during the same period.
This study uses IRS change of address data. It is important to note that those who are not required to file federal income tax returns are not included in the data, which means the poor are underrepresented.
Editor’s Note: Rural Insights is a nonprofit online publishing outlet focused specifically on issues affecting the U.P. and its residents. To learn more or to sign up for its newsletter, visit ruralinsights.org.